I pulled the same April-to-May spring window of Maricopa MLS data across three different years: 2023, 2024, and 2026. Same city. Same time of year. Three different snapshots of what sellers actually experienced when they listed their home.

The result is the clearest picture I have had of where this market actually stands, not against last week, but against the last three years of seller outcomes in the same conditions.

Here is what the three-year comparison shows, and what it means if you are thinking about selling in Maricopa right now.

The Three-Year Spring Comparison

The data below covers the same April-to-May window in 2023, 2024, and 2026. Closings, win rates, loss amounts, and how long it took to close. Same market. Three different years.

Metric	Spring 2023	Spring 2024	Spring 2026
Total Closings	167	139	141
Winners (sold at/above original list)	43 (25.7%)	44 (31.7%)	32 (22.7%)
Losers (sold below original list)	124 (74.3%)	95 (68.3%)	109 (77.3%)
Avg Loser Loss	$39,072	$17,838	$30,000
Median Sold Price	$336,070	$355,990	$350,000
Median DOM All Closings	77 days	51 days	77 days
Median DOM Winners	36 days	36 days	34 days
Median DOM Losers	103 days	62 days	94 days

How the Price Distribution Has Shifted

One of the most telling changes over the three years is where closings are actually happening across price ranges.

Price Range	Spring 2023	Spring 2024	Spring 2026
Under $300,000	7%	7%	21%
$300,000 to $349,999	55%	40%	26%
$350,000 to $399,999	19%	29%	32%
$400,000 to $449,999	8%	14%	12%
$450,000+	10%	10%	9%

In 2023 and 2024, only 7% of spring closings happened below $300,000. In 2026, that number is 21%, three times as many. Homes that were listed at $330,000 to $350,000 are clearing in the sub-$300,000 bucket. That is not a market collapse. It is what happens when asking prices are set above what buyers are qualified to pay.

What the 2024 Window Tells You About 2026

Spring 2024 was the brief improvement period for Maricopa sellers. Rates had dipped, buyer demand picked up, and the win rate hit 31.7%, the best of any spring in this data set. The average loss for sellers who went below asking was only $17,838. If you have a neighbor who sold in spring 2024 and had a smooth experience, that was real, and it was also the peak.

Spring 2026 is now 9 percentage points worse in win rate than spring 2024. Average loser losses are $12,162 higher. We are back to the same 77-day median close timeline as 2023. The 2024 window closed.

For more on the pricing gap that shows up in closings versus active listings, see our post on why Maricopa sellers are leaving money on the table in 2026.

Current Maricopa Active Snapshot (May 13, 2026)

Metric	Value
Active Listings	505
Pending (Under Contract)	135
Median Active List Price	$370,000
Active Listings with Price Cuts	273 (54.1%)
Median Active DOM	53 days
Avg Active DOM	85.3 days
Active Listings 60+ DOM	231 (45.7%)

135 pending contracts is a meaningful demand signal. Buyers are writing contracts in Maricopa right now. The issue is not that buyers are absent. The issue is that 54.1% of active listings have already demonstrated their original price was wrong by cutting it. The sellers who priced correctly from the start are not competing against their own history of price reductions.

Neighborhood Breakdown (May 13, 2026)

Across all of Maricopa's major neighborhoods, here is where demand is showing up and where listings are sitting. For a deeper neighborhood breakdown, see last month's post on which Maricopa neighborhoods are selling fast and which are stuck.

All Neighborhoods Active Snapshot

Neighborhood	Status	Active	Avg DOM	% Cut	Pending
Sorrento	Fast	25	53 days	36%	10
Maricopa Meadows	Fast	20	53 days	40%	5
Senita	Fast	17	61 days	24%	4
Desert Cedars	Fast	5	61 days	40%	1
Homestead	Watch	34	70 days	62%	5
Tortosa	Watch	33	73 days	52%	3
Acacia Crossings	Watch	8	79 days	38%	2
The Villages at RED	Watch	27	94 days	52%	6
Santa Rosa Springs	Stuck	22	83 days	82%	6
Glennwilde	Stuck	30	106 days	70%	4
Rancho Mirage Estates	Stuck	40	109 days	62%	19
Cobblestone Farms	Stuck	16	109 days	81%	4
The Lakes at RED	Stuck	3	121 days	100%	0
Alterra South	Stuck	11	146 days	64%	1

Sorrento standout: 10 pending contracts with only a 36% cut rate and 53-day average DOM. That is the strongest pending-to-active ratio in Maricopa right now, driven by accurate entry-level pricing in the $320,000 to $340,000 range.

Rancho Mirage Estates note: 19 pending despite a 62% cut rate and 109-day average DOM. Volume is there, but nearly two-thirds of active sellers have already cut. The demand is real, but it is only finding the homes that have adjusted down to buyers' price points.

The National Picture

Purchase mortgage applications are up 7% year over year nationally. Weekly pending sales hit 79,220, up 6.7% from the same week last year. Nationally, demand is at multiyear highs.

The 30-year fixed rate is at 6.46% as of the week ending May 8, a 5-week high. That is above the 6.25% threshold that has historically activated the next tier of buyer demand in markets like Maricopa.

The most significant macro data point this week is the April Producer Price Index. Headline PPI rose 6.0% year over year, the highest reading since December 2022, and the largest monthly increase since March 2022. Core PPI is at 4.4% annually. This is the single most consequential piece of data for sellers waiting for rate relief: you cannot cut rates when producer inflation is running at 6%. The Fed is currently split between rate cut advocates and those considering rate hikes. April payrolls added 115,000 jobs, well above the threshold that prevents Fed action. Rate relief is not arriving on the timeline most Maricopa sellers have been waiting for.

Three Things to Do Before You List

Pull actual closed sales from your subdivision, not active listings. Active listings are asking prices, not sold prices. The three-year data show that sellers who price based on what neighbors are asking consistently overshoot buyers' asking prices. The number that matters is what closed in your neighborhood in the last 30 days at the original list price or better.

Do not use spring 2024 as your pricing anchor. Spring 2024 was the brief window of improvement for Maricopa sellers. Win rates, loss amounts, and close timelines all improved that spring. Using a 2024 comp as your target in 2026 means pricing for a buyer environment that no longer exists. Three years of data is consistent: what buyers paid most recently in your subdivision is the number that matters, not what they paid two springs ago.

Understand where the macro stands before you choose a list date. PPI at 6%, jobs at 115,000, a Fed in internal disagreement, and an Iran conflict driving bond market volatility. The macro environment that sellers have been waiting to improve has moved in the opposite direction in recent weeks. The 135 pending contracts in Maricopa right now are being written by buyers qualified at a rate of 6.46%. Price for that buyer.